Taming the ‘gut feeling’

There have been some interesting comments lately on the role of the ‘gut instinct’ when making business decision. It was made even more interesting because I had a ‘gut feeling’ myself yesterday afternoon, then someone blogged about it and then when investigating followers on Twitter, I happened across Richard Branson’s blog (http://entrepreneur.virgin.com/2009/01/05/what-virgin-does/) which in the first few lines talks about his own gut feelings.

Is there some force at work here that can explain all this? Why would I get three seperate pointers towards this subject in a matter of hours? Does this mean there is some cosmological significance to what I’m about to write about?

No.

As a healthy skeptic (in that I remain healthily skeptical, not that I’m physically healthy, oh no, I’m not, I eat far too many pies), I look into things like this with one eye on science to pass me some information as to why something looks or feels like it does.

Before I get into ‘gut instinct’, I think it’s worth taking a look at why humans behave in the way they do, it’s an insight that will serve you well.

Human’s perception of reality

First off, you have to realise that as humans, we are only getting a translated version of what the outside world looks like. All those photons hitting objects and bouncing into your eyes are being converted into electrical pulses that will eventually get to the brain and converted into something we understand.

This raises a question – how can we be sure that we’re all looking at the same thing? For example, is it possible to prove that what you see as a green field is exactly what I’m seeing as a green field? Our concept of colour is down to what we’ve learned to accept as ‘green’.

As you can imagine, there’s an awful lot of information being sifted by our brains and so it sometimes takes shortcuts. For example, you won’t be able to remember everything that hap pend today in detail – it’s just too much information, so the brain helps out by relating things.

Take a look at the techniques used by the ‘memory men’ and you’ll see what I mean. For example, In order to remember a whole deck of cards, they will create a story linking all the cards in sequence. Remembering a story is quite easy and these ‘hooks’ enable the person to remember the order.

So, how does this fit in with ‘gut feeling’? Well, first of all we tend to remember the ‘linkable’ stuff or the things that relate to other things much easier than if we try to remember isolated incidents. If we read a paragraph of a blog and it doesn’t interest us at all, then we’ll most likely forget it very quickly. If we then go on to read something that has some resonance, especially emotionally, we will remember it easily.

When are ‘gut feelings’ real?

When we have a ‘gut feeling’ about something we probably won’t act on it unless it is backed up and proven correct. In Jim’s blog (http://jimsmarketingblog.com/2009/01/06/trust-your-instincts/) he talks about a gut feeling about a customer that turned out to be correct. This feeling was remembered and a blog was written. A blog about how a gut feeling was proven to be wrong would probably never have been written.

In fact, if we have a feeling that something will go badly and then it doesn’t, we’ll likely forget about it very quickly as we revert to normal day-to-day work. If our feeling is proven correct though, we will probably go on about it to all our friends and bitch on Twitter and Facebook.

However, there’s a big ‘but’ coming up. If you’ve ever read ‘Blink’ by Malcolm Gladwell then you’ll know that he has done some research into ‘gut feelings’ and he can state with some confidence that something is going on. I can’t agree more – feelings have a place in decisions, but they have to be tempered with analysis.

Driving a car

After driving a car for a few years, you don’t bother to look down when changing gear, it becomes instinct and almost automatic. You also don’t worry about where the pedals are to accelerate or break. You just do it.

Very often I find myself slowing down on a road only to find that there has been an accident just ahead. Something has told me to beware and almost unconsciously I do. This is ‘gut feeling’ based on experience, knowledge and analysis.

Can the same be true in business? I actually think it’s far more difficult. You’re dealing with many variables that you just can’t control, but that’s not to say that it’s impossible. Given enough information and enough experience, I’m sure that people’s feelings can be trusted but obviously it’s not really a gut feeling. All that’s happened is that your brain has taken in the information, based it on existing knowledge and turned it into an emotion.

So to the question: “Can you trust your ‘gut feeling’ in business”?

If you’re experienced enough, then yes, but if you’re not, then no.

But that’s only my gut feeling.